Reggie Jackson wasn’t just given the moniker “Mr. October”. He earned it. Al Bundy may have scored four touchdowns in one game, but that only happened in the world of fiction. As Yankees fans know, Reggie Jackson’s real life exploit included hitting three home runs in game six of the 1977 World Series.
Retail stocks had their own Mr. October moment over the past three weeks. Walmart, Home Depot, Best Buy, Costco and Lowe’s rallied through October 26. Only Target among the retailers shows saw a down month. The S&P 500 remained flat.
Stocks go up and down. It’s hard to know why. Big picture stocks reflect expectations of future cash flow and the durability of those cash flows. In practice stocks go up and down relative to near-term expectations. Did stocks go up in October because of expectations of a great Q3? Or a great Q4?
Look, Q3 was probably okay. At least from available data. But what do I know.
The forward situation looks a bit murkier when looking at a sample of credit card YoY spending. As found in a consumer panel made available publicly by Carbon Arc. Data suggests down trends in October relative to September. One marvels how investors aren’t a bit more pessimistic.
Carbon Arc’s credit card panel data (available for free on their website) shows September YoY spending growth turning into declines at key retailers.
Don’t focus on the actual numbers. That’s not the point. These are panel estimates, not reported company sales. Rather, look at how many retailers shifted from September growth to October declines. Weird.
The weakness from the Carbon Arc data isn’t universal across all consumer categories.
Airline spending remains positive at Southwest, United, Delta and American. That being said, growth decelerated at three of the four relative to September.
Economic pressures have yet to affect the purchase and consumption of energy drinks. Perhaps caffeination helps processing challenged economic information. Or perhaps energy is needed to combat the October blues.
So what’s happening here?
We know that the consumer continues to be challenged given inflationary pressures and high gas prices. We know that consumer sentiment is down.
As I wrote yesterday regarding Chipotle, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for October fell to 48.0. Historically, this is rather weak. We’re seeing deep consumer pessimism. The index hit its all-time record low of 44.8 in May 2026. Reuters reported several days ago that “US consumer sentiment near record low ahead of midterm elections”.
Yet we continue to hear that consumer spending remains resilient. Like the other day, when an author on the Equifax Insights Blog published a piece titled “U.S. Economic Outlook: Why Consumer Spending Remains Resilient”.
I’m not saying the US is headed for an economic contraction. I’m not even saying that we’ll see a weak Q4.
All I’m saying is that if this Carbon Arc panel data is capturing a real change in demand, October could complicate the guidance that management teams provide.
Chipotle will report results Wednesday after market close. Amazon will provide results on Thursday after market close. We’ll learn soon enough if we’re seeing weak October trends.
Disclosure: I’m not invested in any of these stocks. I have funds in the S&P 500.
Disclaimer: This is just for entertainment purposes. Do your own research.